Senin, 28 Juni 2010

A real estate market for Doomsday




As a child of the cold war, I remember watching The Day After, which gave me nightmares and even to this day the movie scares the crap out of me.

When the Iron Curtain fell which signaled the end of the cold war, I figured that Nuclear War was something that was left to Sci Fi films.

Nope. Y2K came along. And went.

Everything is honk dory right? Not after 9/11.

Below is a segment from Nightline , about luxury survival condos.



What should raise a couple of eyebrows is when a developer who specializes in these shelters is asked if he is being paranoid. He asks if the government is paranoid because they have been feverishly building these shelters in the last ten years. And he knows this because they use the same engineers.

Three things we can learn from this.

1. Fear never leaves.

2. Fear has a market.

3. Real estate can manifest itself in the oddest of places.

Rabu, 23 Juni 2010

Home sales

The following were the home sales for 4 subdivisions in areas close to Cherry Point Marine Air Station



Neuse Harbour


Active homes for sale by price range

Current number of homes on the market=17

Pending sales=0

Active homes for sale by price range

$219,000-$300,000=8

$,301,000-$450,000=7

$1,250,000-$1,475,000=2

There were 5 homes that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 12 months.



Stately Pines

Current homes on the market=8

Pending sales=2

Active homes for sale by price range

$181,900-$200,000=3

$200,000-$250,000=3

$288,000-$799,000=2

There were 9 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 12 months.

Carolina Pines

Current homes on the market=26

Pending sales=3

Active homes for sale by price range

$150,000-$200,000=11

$200,000-$250,000-11

$251,000-$300,000=4

There were 28 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 12 months.

Tucker Creek

Current homes on the market=12

Pending sales=3

Active homes for sale by price range

$129,000-$200,000=6

$201,000-$299,500=6

There were 12 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 12 months.

New Bern 4th of July Celebration

New Bern is the place to be on the 4th of July. Among many of the interesting events to be held this day are the chance to observe the world's largest barbecue bun and sandwich.

Known throughout the South as some of the best barbecue in the world, Tommy Moore of Moore's Barbecue will attempt a Guinness World Record by creating a sandwich large enough to feed more than 300 people.

Tommy Moore/ Chef/Pitmaster and his Barbecue Bun team will gather at 1 p.m. to assemble the Barbecue Bun-Largest Open Sandwich at Union Point Park. Don't miss a part of history as we celebrate the founding of our country.


Senin, 21 Juni 2010

Just checking in.


Made a break out of town.

Hi folks. It has been a awhile. I have been taking care of some personal business so I have been unable to blog and I think it will be awhile before I can pop in regularly. Before I leave, I would like to comment on this article.

Housing Market Slows as Buyers Get Picky

This is really oversimplifying the situation which is surprising since this was published in the New York Times.

This real estate market is f**ked up for a variety of reasons which include sellers, lenders, foreclosures and the economy. To simply place the blame on one group is just plain stupid.

Which leads me to my next completely unscientific gut feeling. We are going to get hit again by the real estate market. The cause will be the consequences of the double dip and it will also be caused by something that none of us saw coming.

And then it will another decade or so to sort that out.

Senin, 14 Juni 2010

Jumat, 11 Juni 2010

"If I didn't know it was me,'' he says, "I would have been the one digging out the pitchforks and torches and knocking on my door.''


What did you expect? A parade?

In a previous entry, I covered the NYT article about people taking advantage of going into foreclosure. Well apparently these idiots are now pissed off about all the attention they are getting.


Florida Couple Upset At NY Times Mortgage Article


"If I didn't know it was me,'' he says, "I would have been the one digging out the pitchforks and torches and knocking on my door.''

Alex Pemberton

Even the subject of the article admits he understands why people are pissed off at him. So why should they be upset about the storm of negative comments they are getting? Do they think that people would hoist them on their shoulders and parade them all over town?

The Pemberton and Reboyras gamed the system and are now reaping the benefits. But by admitting what they have done in public they have only themselves to blame for the backlash.

They are either ignorant, stupid or just don't care about their surroundings. What they should have done is shut the f**k up. Because by announcing what they did is tantamount of eating an ice cream cone in front of a group of starving children.

In times like this, good fortune, and I use the term loosely for what Pemberton and Reboyras did, is not something one should show to the world. Because one person's cause for joy is another person's cause for resentment. And there is a lot of resentment in the world.

If you got something good going. Keep it to yourself.

Rabu, 09 Juni 2010

Your bag

To the a$$$holes of the subway, having a very large bag does not justify you letting to swing around and hit other people while on the train.

Sooner or later your bag is going to touch someone who has a very low threshold for physical contact and they will touch you back. And not in a good way.

Senin, 07 Juni 2010

Same s**t. Differnt Day.


No need to explain.


This is the latest New York Times article on the difficulties of finding an apartment.
How to Be a Brainy Renter

I have discussed this topic ad nauseum in the past and all I have to say is that the clock is ticking on the viability of rental brokers due to the arms race to circumvent the rental broker.

With the current state of the economy, money is very tight and that is not a good thing for rental brokers as I have indicated in this interview with Joyce Cohen

Affording the Broker's Fee

It happens all the time where people have to choose between covering the fee or the capital outlays for renting an apartment. Whether they don't have the money or just don't want to give it up, this current economic climate does not give them any incentive to pay up.

Of course the broker are not to crazy about that. So what does broker do? Kill the deal. I'm serious. They cut their nose to spite their face. If they can't get theirs, why should anyone else.

Do landlords care about this? It depends on the landlords. If the landlord has armies of qualified renters knocking down their doors, they are not going to care. If the bank is knocking on their doors asking about the rent roll, it is likely they will be pissed at their broker.

What will determine how much of a haircut rental brokers will get is if they are acting as a barriers of entry for landlords because they are unable to collect their fees. Once that happens, the s**t is really going to hit the fan.

That is when these alternative sites will start to pick up more steam and then someone decides to pull a Firefox and create a free site that lists all the rental buildings in Manhattan. Which is entirely feasible. All the information is out there and all it takes is a couple of programmers, a case of red bull and renter's rage to consolidate it all in a site that is accessible to the public. When that day comes, there will be blood on the streets.

Minggu, 06 Juni 2010

New Bern NC Home sales

Building permits, not inspections, in Craven County are up significantly year over year. I am referring to Craven County permits only and not the city of New Bern or Havelock. I will try to start tracking city permits as well.




For the month of May, 2010, there were 127 homes that closed in our entire MLS. Of these only 13 were over $250,000. This compares to 107 that closed in May of 2009 of which 12 were over $250,000.



There are currently 312 new homes for sale and 36 sold in the month of May. This means we have almost one year of new home inventory on the market. Be careful builders.



Since there were 104 homes that closed in April 2010 and 127 in May 2010 can we conclude that with the ending of the first time homebuyers tax credit, sales have not been negatively affected?

Not yet, because even though the program ended in April, many of the sales that were initiated because of the program did not close until May. You had to be under contract by the end of April but have until the end of June to close.



One concern of mine is the increase of inventory of existing homes we are seeing. I believe many folks who did not sell their home the first go around have put their home on the market at this time thinking that late spring, summer is the time to sell. This has resulted in somewhat of an excess of inventory(almost 17 months worth at the current absortion rate) and will put pressure on folks to reduce their price in order to sell. If I did not have to sell my house I would not put it on the market at this time.

Selasa, 01 Juni 2010

Leverage


Everyone has it.

The article below is about owners who have stopped paying their mortgages and are not worried about it. In other words they are engaging in another variety of strategic default.

Owners Stop Paying Mortgages, and Stop Fretting

Comments

Let me list the reasons why this is possible.

1. Banks are in the lending business not the real estate business. They are not landlords. The last thing a bank wants to do is take over a property because it costs too much to manage it and get rid of it.

2. The foreclosure process is not an immediate. Even before the meltdown, there were always a ton of hoops a lender had to go through to foreclose on a house.

3. Banks are overwhelmed by the copious amount of homeowners in default. They obviously did not have the proper system set up to deal with it.

4. The new regulations in foreclosure is making the process more difficult for lenders.

5. People are pissed as f**k.


There is a massive state of rage amongst the have nots about being screwed over. And a lot of them have been.

Blacks in Memphis Lose Decades of Economic Gains

Two years ago, his doorbell rang, and two men from Wells Fargo offered to consolidate his consumer loans into a low-cost mortgage.

“I thought, ‘This is great! ’ ” Mr. Banks says. “When you have four kids, college expenses, you look for any savings.”

What those men did not tell Mr. Banks, he says (and Ms. Thomas, who studied his case, confirms), is that his new mortgage had an adjustable rate. When it reset last year, his payment jumped to $1,700 from $1,200.


This is just one of millions of stories of people being taken of advantage of. And there are millions of stories of people making really bad life decisions.

Nobody gives a damn now. Who can blame them?