The year in review

You may have been hearing chatter in the news about home prices starting to rise. This could be the case  in some markets, particularly those that were hit the hardest like Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. In these markets home prices were so depressed there was no way to go but up. However I have not seen prices rising  in the New Bern area although they seem to be stabilizing and personally believe we are close to the bottom of the market. Homes are currently selling at around 1999-2000 price levels.

From 01-01-12 through 12-22-12 there have been 951 homes sold in Craven County. This compares to 930 during the same time frame in 2011. A little bump and certainly I welcome any positive news. During the same time period in 2011 there were 249 distressed properties, (bank owned, foreclosures, short sales), sold. In 2012 there have been 227 distressed properties sold, almost a 10% decrease. However, in Oct., Nov., Dec. 2012 saw a 17% increase in distressed property sales compared to the same time in 2011. It is impossible to have a housing recovery as long the rate of distressed properties sold is increasing. Lets hope the trend of the last 3 months ends soon.

In 2012 distress properties comprised 24% of the home sales in the Craven County market. Even though this is an improvement over 2011, (27%), in a healthy market this number probably would be in the 2-4% range. Nationwide distressed sales comprise about 25% of sales so were are not any worse than most areas if that makes you feel better. Lending guidelines were tightened up after the mortgage crash in 2008 and in the long run this will result in a decrease in foreclosures and ultimately help stabilize housing prices.

We have a long way to go, however, it appears we are moving in the right direction. We need for the economy to start improving and producing private sector jobs before we see home prices rise. Each year our population is growing and with that more folks are coming of the age to buy a home. There is undoubtedly a pent up demand for housing out there lurking and what is missing in a in a strong housing recovery are good jobs.

Homes sold in 2012 by price range,

$1000-$50000=97
$50001-$100000=183
$101000-$150000=245
$150100-$200000=258
$200100-$250000=134
$250100-$300000=53
$300100-$350000=20
$350100-$400000=19
$400100-$450000=8
$450100-$500000=3
$500100-$550000=4
$550100-$600000=3

For homes over $250,000 there is about a 21 month absorption rate. In other words, expect it to take 21 months to sell a home in this price range unless a home offers something unique. Retirees use to be a large portion of the buyers in this price range. Because they had to sell their homes at a reduced price to move here they are now buying less expensive homes. Active duty military officers  use to buy quite a few homes in this price range as well and now many now are opting to rent. All this makes for tough selling conditions for homes over $250,000.

If you have any questions about any particular price range or even sales in a particular subdivision let me know. I hope everyone has a blessed Christmas.

For more information on Real estate go to www.newbern-nc.info

What a year!

Steve and Jana Tyson would like to take this time to thank all of our customers we have had the opportunity to help this past year. We will close $15 million in Real Estate, or real close to that number, this year. This will put us in the top 5% of Realtors nationwide and we could not have done it without you. Thank each and every one of you for your business.

Have a great Christmas,

Real Estate Sales in Craven County for the past year

The following data shows a picture of the overall market in all of Craven County. My take is that it is still a strong buyers market. Combine that with unbelievable interest rates it is a great time to buy Real Estate. Not such a great time to sell, but homes are selling everyday.

• 830 homes currently for sale.
• 894 homes sold in the past year.
• 109 Commercial buildings and commercial lots for sale.
• 17   Commercial buildings and commercial lots sold in the past year.
• 463 Lots and or land for sale.
• 90   Lots and land parcels sold in the past year

I am hearing chatter about the Real Estate Market improving nationally, however the markets that seem to be improving are the markets that were hit the worst and just about had no where to go but up. My gut feeling is that we are bouncing along the bottom and where we go from here will depend on the amount of foreclosures dumped in the market and the stability of the job market.

Aftermath of Sandy

Although the Grunt lost heat and power for a couple, I consider myself quite fortunate and very grateful. Even though subway service is almost fully restored, since yesterday  I have seen people boarding shuttle buses. In fact, the next couple of days is going to be a bit rough for anyone commuting to the point that a certain investment bank that likens itself as the "Jim Henson" of Wall Street" has teamed up with one of  "Father Barry's" former employers has chartered buses for their commuting employees coming in from Grand Central. In fact, the Grunt would not be surprised if many Wall Street firms were setting up transportation alternatives for all of their employees. There will be a return to normal but it will be a struggle.


You know what else is going to be up and running? DOS. So it appears that the broker's exam is still on. I am unsure how all of you studied for it this past week. I wish you all the best of luck

Scarsdale, often referred to as the jewel of Westchester has not fared very well at all. It has been reported that they will not have full power till November 11th. As of November 3, 2012, The high school and one elementary school have full power. Another elementary school has partial power which leaves the junior high aka middle school and three elementary schools with no power. As of November 1, 2012 schools plan on being opened on Monday November 5, 2012. With the caveat that scheduling is subject to change. The Grunt does not blame Con Edison for this situation because no pun intended, they were dealing with a perfect storm. The obvious is that Sandy was a storm that no one had ever seen before and pretty much laid waste to many areas including Staten Island. Among the factors that devastated that area was the lack of natural barriers. Since the economy imploded back in 2007, many industries implemented cutbacks, utilities were no different. Part of the reason why they are shipping in crews from California is because Con Edison either laid of much of their workforce or did not hire replacements for the members that were retiring. Therefore they had to make do with less and they had decide which areas needed their help most. Spock summed it up best.

October Home Sales

So how were October sales?

In October, 2012, there were a total of 102 homes sold in our MLS. Of those sold, 

1. $6000-$100,000=26

2. $201,000-$200,000=56

3. $201,000-$250,000=13

4. $251,000=$300,000=3

5. Over $300,000=4   Note-there are 269 homes over $300,000 for sale. 

Included in the total above were 13 New Home Sales

In October, 2011, there were a total of 86 homes sold in our MLS. Of those sold, 

1. $6000-$100,000=18

2. $201,000-$200,000=48

3. $201,000-$250,000=8

4. $251,000=$300,000=6

5. Over $300,000=6

Included in the total above were 18 New Home sales

Home affordability

Are we at or near the bottom of the market? I think so. I attended a national Keller Williams training a few weeks ago and speaking to Realtors in other markets I am starting to get the impression the worse is behind us. Some of the states that were hit the hardest seem to be on the rebound. 

While we won't know for certain when the market has hit its lowest point and starts moving up, most experts believe that interest rates can't go down much if any. That is a very important consideration to take into account. Lets say you are looking at a house currently listed at $200,000 and interest rates are 3.5 %. You think the market has not quite bottomed out and you are going to wait until it drops some more, say to $190,000. In the meantime interest rates tick up to 4.5%. You have cost yourself a lot of money with the increase in interest rates even f the price is reduced to $190,000.

When you consider interest rates, home affordability is at or near an all time low. What are you waiting for?

New Bern new home sales

The following shows new home sales in the New Bern market over the past several years.

2012 year to date New Home Sales
Total=202
Of these 14 sold for over $250,000.

2011 same time period New Home Sales
Total=192
Of these 14 sold for over $250,000.


2010 same time period New Home Sales
Total=254
Of these 13 sold for over $250,000.


2009 same time period New Home Sales
Total=256
Of these 32 sold for over $250,000.


2008 same time period New Home Sales
Total=303
Of these 64 sold for over $250,000.