Low Hanging Fruit

The next wave is here.

It was after the first couple of months of the financial meltdown, that I began to receive emails from a site called Property Campaign. At first I blew these emails off as a spam, but then I discovered that these people were definitely legit. Which brings me to the commercial real estate bubble.

Greenspan: Commercial Real Estate Bubble Has Already Popped

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan believe a bubble in commercial real estate has already popped. “Real estate prices generally are down 50%,” Greenspan told me in my exclusive “This Week” interview. “With prices already down and adjusted, if we were going to get severe secondary reactions, they would have occurred, and they would have occurred if it weren’t for the fact that the rest of the economy is showing some degree of buoyancy.”

I have to agree with him on this matter. Yeah. I know it is a first.

These ads alone below is enough evidence for me.



The American auto industry has been taken a beating since the financial meltdown, on an anecdotal level I recently met someone who got one of those deals of the century. He basically got an insane deal for a car and was only required to pay the principal in a very attractive monthly payment plan. Although the model he bought was quite recent, the dealership had to clear the decks for new inventory.

The rental car industry has been hit severely because revenue streams are reliant on the traveling/tourism industry. Besides the usual reasons why people would travel to Florida, the real estate bubble in that area was a huge boon for the rental car industry for speculators who needed to look at properties. Now everything has dried up.




You would think that a warehouse would be the last place that would get hammered by the economy but it has taken more than a fair share of its lumps. If you think about it, it makes perfect sense. If consumer spending is down, there is no reason for retailers to purchase stock, if there is no stock to be purchased, there is no need to store it any where. And if the economy is recovering, the owner of this property is going to get out while they still can.



This listing does not surprise me. As everyone knows the restaurant industry has been taken a severe beat down, so these particular investors are getting the hell out of dodge.

A common theme with these properties is Florida, so it is not surprising that investors in that state are in dire need of liquidating.


Condo development is completely out of vogue, especially in California. No surprises here.


I have also been getting a lot of ads for strip malls.



Blame consumer spending. The owners of this property are unsure of how sustainable their tenants will be in the near future, so why take a chance? Take the money and run.






These seem like good tenants, in fact one could argue they qualify as anchors. But their viability depends on consumer spending which is on very shaky ground.

Now this is where things start to get out of whack.



Now mind you, this is the first ad for medical space I have seen, but it concerns me because medical office space is considered to be bullet proof. In fact if I had a ton of cash, I would dump it into this market. However, it is understandable why people are on edge about medical space due to the Obama Healthcare plan.

Now here's where it gets s**tastic.



I got a bunch of these types of ads for properties for sale. What concerned me is that these tenants are ideal for any commercial landlord and what makes them more valuable is that they are near a Wal Mart.


From what I have been told the real estate model for Wal-marts is they find a location, build it and then bundle it up with other super centers and sell it to a syndicate.

I find it quite disconcerting that someone wants to unload a Wal-mart because those stores are annuities. Hell, they are blue chips in the real estate world. As far as I am concerned there is nothing safer. But here we are.

Is this a great time to invest in commercial real estate? Absolutely. But there is a lot of low hanging fruit out there and you better be someone who has a lot of liquidity and an excellent track record for not getting in over your heard.

Unless you have plans for development or have a tenant ready to go, it would be prudent to exercise extreme caution in properties that are associated with restaurants, cars, California and Florida.

Don't be afraid to low ball. You are taking just as much risk as everyone else is.

Happy Hunting.

DON'T F**K WITH A DOORMAN

As I have said before in previous entries, the Doorman is a powerful presence in real estate.

In my experience, I have never seen a Doorman get violent. Until now.

Before



After


I am not taking sides but as someone who has worked with paparazzi and understands their nature, this volatile situation does not surprise me.

The Doorman is the last person you want to go toe to toe with. If they are union, they will have better benefits, insurance coverage and access to better lawyers.

John Wayne Bill Indeed.

What they are asking for is science fiction.

When it comes to gun right, I am pretty much indifferent, but I strongly believe that people should make an effort to educate themselves in how to properly utilize them and the consequences of using them.

Police Officers are unique because they not only do they receive the education in using firearms but they are also to required to learn from the streets.

Which brings me to this article.

Bill May Forbid Cops From Shooting to Kill

I understand the logic behind this bill but all they are doing is further hamstringing from doing their job. Contrary to popular, the general consensus amongst is that the lost thing a cop wants to do is pull their weapon and use it. When a cop uses their gun int eh line of duty, a big party is thrown where Internal Affairs, the District Attorney and depending on the situation other government officials and community activists. It requires a lot of paperwork and meetings. Lots of meetings. It is a huge pain the ass. I haven't even touched the mental and physical consequences.

In fact some of the best cops are the ones who are not associated with having a body count.

I understand the logic of this bill but this is not the answer. If this bill passes you are going to count on having more dead and wounded cops. If criminals know their chances of survival in a gunfight with the police have increased, they will definitely take that advantage and you are going to have more dead and wounded cops.

What the politicians should do is require more training of police officers and examine and address unjustified police shootings. Issuing these types of restrictions is just going hamper cops from doing their job.

Awhile back, a officer from the NYPD explained the bizarre nature of shootings. He told me that it was natural that a cop will go through an entire magazine even though it will feel like they fire maybe 3 shots. The adrenaline dump will hit them so hard that it will create tunnel vision. It is also not uncommon for police officer to mistake a ricochet or even debris caused by a bullet as being shot at.

And this is just scratching the surface of what cops have have to deal with. This bill is not going to help them any more.

Yesterday, a mother from China picked up the body of her daughter who beaten to death and raped.

And we are still dealing with the repercussions of that douchebag bomber of Times Square.

Are these people completely unaware of what is going on now?

How not to be a power broker

From D.C to any school board,power and influence are commodities that are bought and sold. I do not think what Sarah Ferguson did was wrong. It is her execution that was completely sloppy and unprofessional.






First of all, if she was really serious about this she should have just set up her own lobbying firm and joined forces with people who have experience as power brokers. Not only to lead her but to also to give her access to other networks of influence. She should also have hired herself the most powerful attorney to make sure that not only her interests were protect but also to make sure she did not do anything incriminating.




The Queen Mum is pissed but not at her but at her son Prince Andrew. Even though they are divorced, he should have taken more responsibility to ensure that his ex-wife the loose cannon was strapped down securely. And with Fergie's history of embarrassing the royal family, Prince Andrew should have been better prepared. Even though he was not on the take, it still does not look good for him.

If Fergie has done this in the past, he should have suspected she was not helping certain parties out of the goodness of her own heart.

“I have not got a bean to my name,” she is quoted as saying. “I’m a taxpayer, a British taxpayer, and I left the royal family for freedom, and in freedom it means I am bereft. I’m hopeless.”

-Sarah Ferguson

This woman needed cash. Why else would she shill for Weight Watchers?

What Prince Andrew should have done was upped her alimony to the point where she did not have to shill for herself. And the moment he noticed that she was hawking access to him, he should have set up a company for her and hired people who were loyal only to him and give them strict instructions to watch her so she did not f**k things up.

More importantly, he should have also hired someone to manage her finances to ensure she did not burn through all her cash.

The sad thing about all of this is that if Fergie had actually made the effort to fully understand her position, mastered the the nuances and subtleties of being a power broker and aligned herself with the right people, she would have been force to reckon with that even the Queen Mother would have to respect. Now she is just a f**king joke.

Notice the trend with Eliot Spitzer and what is going on in Albany?

People are not making the effort to understand the rules of the game. For whatever they either ignorant or do not care to learn. And they pay dearly.

New Home Sales

County building inspections were up as of the end of April 10% when compared to last year. Nothing to jump up and down about but at least it is going in the right direction.




Total home sales to date in craven County are 416 as compared to 384 in 2009. Again we are moving in the right direction but it will be a while before we are able to see how much of this was the result of the tax credit.



Of the homes 416 homes sold, 108 were new construction as compared to 113 in 2009.



New Construction 2010 Sold



Under $150,000=24

$150001-$200,000=60

$200,001-$250,000=18

Over $250,000=6



New Construction 2009 sold

Under $150,000=26

$150,001-$200,000=37

$200,001-$250,000=25

Over $250,000=25 Note some of these over $250,000 were deeply discounted.

Lost

Jin and Sun: Never Forget


I have a lot on my plate which I have been able to clean off but now the next course awaits me. However, I will still maintain my presence on this blog.


No, I have not been away nor have I been doing this. I have just been, how should I say, recalibrating myself.

But I have been keeping tabs on what has been going in the world and I have a lot to say about it.

New Bern Air show

MCAS Cherry Point Air Show announces satellite shuttle parking plans




Attendees for the Carolina's largest air show, the “MCAS Cherry Point Air Show”, scheduled for May 21-23, once again have the option of avoiding long lines at the gate by taking advantage of satellite shuttle parking service.



This year, the premiere act will feature the world's top military jet team, the “US Navy Blue Angels”.



Satellite parking will be available only on Saturday and Sunday, May 22nd and 23rd. Two shuttle services will be available for spectators'

convenience. For those coming in on Hwy 70 from the New Bern area, the shuttle lot will be located at Tucker Creek Middle School on Sermons Blvd (near Wells Wayside Furniture). For those coming in on Hwy 70 from the Morehead City area, the parking lot will be located at Craven Community College on Cunningham Boulevard (bear right at the Havelock City Hall).



Both sites will run buses from the parking lots directly to the air show's flight line. Buses are scheduled to run as soon as they are full, or every half hour, whichever occurs first. Satellite parking areas will begin transporting at 9 a.m. and will stop running from the flight line at 5:30 p.m. or as crowds dictate.



Dates for the Carolina's largest air show are May 21-23 with a "Night Show" on Friday evening, May 21 and two full "Day Shows" on Saturday and Sunday, May 22 and 23. Admission and parking are free. Premium seating upgrades are available for purchase via the website.



For more information on the air show, experience the show's website at www.cherrypointairshow.com or call toll free 866-WINGS-NC.