Selasa, 11 Maret 2008

You are a f**king idiot




He really blew it.



From ABC News


In a interview two years ago, Spitzer, then-attorney general, told ABC News he had some advice for people who break the law. "Never talk when you can nod, and never nod when you can wink, and never write an e-mail because it's death. You're giving prosecutors all the evidence we need," he said.


Spitzer should have followed his own advice. Now he is front page news on the verge of losing his Governorship and possibly being prosecuted for a federal crime.


Spitzer’s f**k up not only impacts his own career but the following parties.

1.Wall Street. According to Dealbreaker,
Wall Street was shocked and overjoyed at the fall of this boogeyman that had been the source of their nightmares. However they shouldn’t be cheering for long.

However, I think their joy will be short lived.

Some bankers noted that Mr Spitzer’s downfall had come at time when he had been co-operating with some of his former enemies on Wall Street to try to bring atability to the troubled municipal bond sector.

Harnessing his widespread contacts from his time as attorney-general, he had been making numerous phone calls to chief executives of top banks such as Citigroup, Credit Suisse and UBS in behind-the-scenes efforts to secure fresh capital to bail out bond insurer Ambac.

Eric Dinallo, the New York insurance regulator who was appointed by Mr Spitzer and who has been working extremely closely with him on the Ambac rescue, did not know about the allegations until he saw the news coverage on Monday, people working with Mr Dinallo said.


Spitzer was probably doing everything he could to bring stability to the financial sector of New York and making every effort to help New York ride out the recession. Will Lt Governor Patterson be able to hold onto the reins of the downturn? He sure as hell does not have Spitzer's power base. To make matters more interesting, Republican Frank Bruno will be the Lt Governor to take Patterson's spot. I am sure that will be a match made in heaven. This will definitely be a tumultuous 3 years in Albany.

2. Hilary Rodham Clinton. This could not come at a worse time for her. Spitzer is a huge Clinton supporter, a super delegate and was on the short list for vice presidential candidates. Apparently Clinton has made every effort to distance herself from him.since the news broker. No surprise there. The last sex scandal that she was smacked in the head with nearly ended up her leaving the White House early.


3. New York State. Spitzer was considered to be a muckraker of sorts and was in the process of implementing an ambitious platform to reform all that was wrong with New York. For some he was a light of hope, but now it has all become so dark. Are we going to go back to the status quo? Will it be business as usual and all of the changes that Spitzer be considered just a historical footnote?

4. Perhaps the biggest losers are Spitzer's family. Silda Wall Spitzer will now be joining the wives of disgraced governors club consisting of Dina Matos McGreevey of New Jersey and Patty Rowland of Connecticut. Spitzer's daughters are going to be forever marred by their Dad's indiscretions. No matter what they accomplish in life, the actions of their father will always be mentioned in the same breath. They don't deserve this. They are the true innocent bystanders in this mess.


Unlike Kelly Kreth, I am not a sex or relationship expert. However from reading an enormous amount of Sidney Sheldon novels and being raised on Aaron Spelling shows, I feel I know a thing or two about the extra curricular activities that some married men participate in. And if Spitzer had just followed the proper protocols, he would not have created this FUBAR.

Let me get this clear. I am not condoning adultery and nor am I judging anyone. I am actually a big supporter of marriage. However, I am a realist. We all have a tendency of straying and sometimes some of us indulge in that tendency. But I do believe there is a proper way of satisfying those urges for men in public office.

Men of power having an affair is as old as time. Franklin Delanor Roosevelt's secretary Lucy Page Mercer Rutherfurd was believed to have been his mistress. John and Robert Kennedy were known to have passed around Marylin Monroe. However unlike our once esteemed and soon to ex governor, these parties exercised a certain level of discretion. In other words they did not leave any paper trails or they employed problem solvers to cover their tracks. That is why we can only speculate on their dalliances after these men have passed onto history because there is no hard evidence.

The way powerful men conduct affairs with other women relies on good old fashion networking. They find someone who they are attracted to in their inner circle and the two parties have a meeting of the minds and presto they have themselves a mistress. The advantages of a qualified mistress is someone that can be at their beck and call. However there is a risk that the mistress will turn on them. How do you think Dick Morris and Frank Gifford got caught with their pants down? Those women were not from their inner circle. Another reason why they choose someone from their inner circle because this person has as much to lose if their arrangement is exposed. This person can also collaborate on a denial if they are exposed.

However if a man of power is not interested in something long term then they should utilize the services of professional ladies of the night. However the last place you want to go is a website that actually advertises call girls and actually make payments from a bank account or use a credit card. I mean for f**k’s sake, doesn’t Spitzer know about people getting busted on craigslist for trying to buy services of experts of carnal knowledge? Did he not learn anything from busting people for these types of crimes? I can't believe he went to law school let alone Harvard.

Powerful men rely on their network to vouch for the discretion and quality of these services. These services only take cash or compensated in ways that do not raise suspicion and they only service a certain type of clientèle.

All Spitzer had to do was follow these steps and he would have been home free.
Better yet, he should have had a sit down with his lovely wife and given her the rundown about his needs. Perhaps a quick run to Babeland and would have maintained their marital bliss. Maybe Spitzer was a monster in bed and his wife could barely keep up with his demands which involved a slab of bacon and three beach balls. Or maybe she cut him off because he was being a complete douche to her. Who knows? None of my business. But even if he did not want to put in the effort of finding a mistress or making the proper arrangements for his infidelities, then he should have just gone to Fleshbot WARNING NSFW, told his wife and kids to clear out of the house for the day and break out a case of Jergens. I am sure he would not be in this position if he had just indulged in a hearty session of private self gratification.

So now we wait for the inevitable. Rumor is that he is holding off to get a deal because he committed a federal crime by transporting a call girl over state lines. Whatever he's up to, just do it fast. Just leave by doing the right thing.

Jumat, 07 Maret 2008

Well, mortgage defaults have reached an all time high

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday that the number of loans past due or in foreclosure jumped to 7.9 percent, from 7.3 percent at the end of September and 6.1 percent in December 2006. Before the third quarter, the rate had never risen past 7 percent since the survey began in 1979.





Recently the NYT published an article about the backlash against aid for people in foreclosures.



I have to admit they present some compelling arguments.


Seattle, which has nowhere near the kind of foreclosure problem other cities have, began a modest program last month offering loans of up to $5,000 to help a few dozen homeowners avoid losing their homes.Not only are people in Seattle relatively prosperous, but they have a reputation for being nice, too. Yet no sooner had Mayor Greg Nickels announced the program than opposition surfaced.
“Just can’t agree with using taxpayer dollars to bail out private homeowners, no matter how the mayor tries to justify it,” read a complaint posted on the “Soundoff” section of The Seattle Post-Intelligencer’s Web site.

Ryan Ellis, the tax policy director for Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative antitax group, said his group opposed efforts by the Bush administration to nudge banks and lenders into restructuring some loans, much less direct government loans to homeowners facing foreclosure.
“You can call it community reinvestment, neighborhood protection, whatever you want,” Mr. Ellis said, “but if you’re taking away the downside risk of a loan, you’re bailing them out.”


I understand why all these municipalities are handing out aid because foreclosures are just all around bad for a community since abandoned houses lower property values and it also makes municipalities vulnerable to forces like crime and especially corporate America. I believe that you will see the destinies of towns taken over by other parties because they have the cash to do as they please.

But I think foreclosure aid is a complete utter waste of time and money. These homeowners don’t want to be saved. They have done the math and even if they keep their homes, there is no way in hell in their lifetimes they will able to recoup the same level of equity they did in the past 5 years. Even if they are offered workouts by their lenders, there is no incentive to take them because the house is going to be worth less money than what they are paying for.

Of course lenders are freaking out because the last thing they want to deal with is become landlords. Usually what happens is that the distressed property community jumps in takes those properties from the lenders for a very low price but from the amount of inventory that is piling up it appears there are not alot of takers.

I conclude it is due to the following reasons.

1.The investors are waiting for the market to really bottom out, to the point that
the lenders are so exasperated that they just toss the keys over to them.
2.There is no money to invest or at least investors do not want to touch anything
related to real estate.
3.It’s all garbage. Whatever is out there right now is not worth buying
4.The process of distressed property investment is to be able to get something cheap
and to sell it off for a profit to another party. In this current environment it is
very difficult to find those parties.


Barry of the Big Picture had this to say.

Thursday, March 06, 2008 | 10:30 AM

The hallucinogenic spin-meisters over at the National Association of Realtors are once again, misstating what their own data indicates:

Flat Existing-Home Sales Likely Before Gradual Recovery
The volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."
This statement reflects a combination of wishful thinking and factual misstatements. Let's review the specifics.


First, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 19.6% from year ago levels. This is hardly a "flat" number, as described by their PR release. This is significant, as the NAR itself notes in the footnotes to their The Pending Home Sales Index:
"There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons."

Hence, the data that matters most is not the change from December to January, filled as it is with seasonal anomalies, but rather, the January 2007 to January 2008 comparison. That showed almost a fifth lower than the prior year's index.
When we consider the rest of the data that's out there, its apparent that stabilization is not the correct word:


We are near stabilization in the housing market as we are near to landing astronauts on Mars. It will happen eventually but not for a very long time.

Kamis, 06 Maret 2008

Pain don't hurt

Besides Donnie Darko, two other moments of brilliance in Patrick Swayze's career.


Patrick Swayze and Chris Farley



Road House

We are all praying for you buddy.

Selasa, 04 Maret 2008

GREENLIGHT: Grand Central is rolling

Grand Central is now operational. You may proceed to your commuter destinations. I did a quick walk through and saw a NY1 journalist/Camera man running around doing interviews. It is still packed but moving.

Breaking News: Building Collapse Grand Central Shutdown

A building collapsed in East Harlem causing all service to be suspended from in and out Grand Central. For further details go to Curbed.

After hearing what happened, I walked through Grand Central and it has become the impromptu staging area for stranded commuters. People are standing around with their cell phones trying to make other arrangements, some are staring at the train schedule screens. At the information booth area there is a MTA employee stoically answering the same questions over and over again. Service has been suspended and we do not know when it will start up again.

More later.

Senin, 03 Maret 2008

And you give me a paine Elaine

Actually she doesn’t. I’m just making a reference to the Stella Pevsner book.




Elaine Clayman is considered to be one of the big guns of not only of Brown Harris Stevens but also of her profession. From what I can recall, at one point she was part of a select group that had listings worth the GNP of a small country. As a titan of the industry, she does not just bring home the bacon; she brings the whole f**king IHOP. Among the benefits of her success is a rumored ranch in Latin America and a powerful presence where even the powers that be of Brown Harris walk very softly around her.

She also has her own group, which is not surprisingly called the Elaine Clayman group and includes her daughter, the rather attractive Justine. Ms. Clayman’s is so big that she even has her own marketing team.

Brown Harris Stevens is considered to one of the premiere white shoe firms. One of their biggest deals was the Rupert Murdoch purchase of his apartment at 834 5th. Brown Harris Stevens prides itself on this image of respectability and prestige. Anything that denotes otherwise isn’t just frowned upon. It is given a pair cement shoes and tossed into the east river.
At one point they enforced a policy prohibiting craigslist which obviously they have changed.
And it was rumored at one point to have been one of the parties that were approached to purchase Citi-Habitats before they were sold off to Corcoran. Allegedly Brown Harris Stevens outright refused to consider it due to the, how should I put it, the difference in broker culture.

Which is the reason why I was completely baffled when Curbed published the Clayman Group ad proclaiming

Chelsea Penthouse Foreclosure Sale.

If you go to the ad now, they have completely changed it removing any mention of the word foreclosure and in fact the entire ad has been changed in a more positive tone.

How this came to light, I do not know. Someone like Elaine Claymn and Brown Harris Stevens would never allow themselves to be associated with the word foreclosure. Distressed maybe or motivated seller but not foreclosure.

Why did this occur? There are two possibilities.

1.Somebody f**ked up.
2.The Manhattan market is more f**ked than we are led to believe


The Grunt is going to go for door number 2. When it comes to marketing, there are fubars, I know this from my personal experience. But there are checks and balances in place to prevent that type of douchebaggery.

From the Curbed comments, it appears this listing has been on the market longer than Britney Spears has been without panties. And it might not be the only one to join the ranks of the foreclosed.

Wall Street is getting its ass kicked in on a daily basis, the economy is getting pummeled and PODUS is in denial about a recession which is the same thing his Dad almost 20 years ago. That being said, it is not a matter if but when Manhattan will fall in line with the nation’s housing market.

Sabtu, 01 Maret 2008

Great Restaurant in downtown New Bern

While my wife and I have eaten lunch many times at Fred and Claires restaurant in downtown New Bern last night was the first time we have eaten dinner there. Wow, we were impressed. Last night around 7 pm we decided to go downtown and eat and were heading for the Chelsea. With a 45 wait to be seated we were to hungry and tired to hang around so we drove around the corner to Craven Street and stopped at Fred and Claires. Upon entering we were greeted by the owners, Martin and Jan, who seated us and watched to see we were taken care of. The service was great, the background music was soft and romantic, and the meal was fabulous. A truely fine dining experience. We have decided that this will be out bi weekly dining out place. Try it out for lunch or dinner.