You know the drill

Send them out or file an extension. One or the other.

Ali Rogers

Ali Rogers is on the rise.


Last Thursday I was perusing Inman and looking over Ali Rogers Real Estate Rookie Column which I discovered was her last column for Inman

Inman News
'Rookie' no more: a farewell
Diary of a Real Estate Rookie

By Alison Rogers | April 7, 2009


Inman News
When I had been a journalist for about 15 years, I got hired to launch a new Saturday section at the New York Post, one that would be entirely about real estate.

With the help of my deputy Andy Wang and a really talented team of people, we created something that was part sports section, part personal finance advice, and part dream-home catalog. The section was new and different, and sales of the Saturday paper shot up. For two years I covered real estate so closely that I lived and breathed it, and that changed my outlook.

I thought of people's life stories in terms of the buildings that they lived in, or could possibly live in. As I put it at the time, "When you have a hammer, everything looks like a house."

Then I just couldn't do it anymore. You try working on the same thing over 100 times and tell me how much passion you have left. Besides, I was pretty jealous of the people I was covering, glamorous super-brokers who wore fancy suits and made millions. I decided that I wanted to quit, and right around that time I had dinner with Brad Inman.

To those of you who read Inman News without having a mental picture of Brad, let me say this: he is courtly and fast and funny all at the same time. If his intentions were ill, you'd have to watch your wallet, but since his intentions are good ... well, I ended up working -- let's see -- six Real Estate Connect conferences and writing a column for him.

The idea was that the column would be called "Diary of a Real Estate Rookie," because a similar column had been written for Inman News once before, and been popular, but the writer had ended up quitting real estate.

The way Brad explained it, I would just have to do the things I was doing in real estate, and tell my stories once a week, and hopefully not quit.

I guess I got the not quitting part right. At the beginning, everything else went wrong: I had trouble investing and terrible clients and tripped over my own feet. But every now and then I had a win. My first year in real estate was my first year of marriage, so I would write about fighting with my darling husband Ivan and then ask him to copy-edit it.

There were weeks when the column was all I had. At the beginning it was a sorely needed paycheck, and at the end it was a way to be emotionally connected to other people who did what I did and loved what I loved, in a world where it felt like, well, most people revile real estate agents.

As time went on, the column gained fans -- and to everyone who ever wrote me, thank you -- and then became a book of the same name which got kudos in Newsweek. Thank you Karen Murphy and Matt Wagner -- you changed my life. My real estate career grew too, to the point where I suddenly knew how to do stuff, and the wins started coming a little more often.

In fact, I haven't quite been a "rookie" for some time now. This is column 183, which means I've been writing it for nearly four years, during which time I've worked with people from Boca Raton and Dallas and Hollywood and Norway, and gotten them all housed.

I've gotten some big paychecks and I've lost some big paychecks -- I refer to the afternoon where I missed a $4 million deal as "the $150,000 Mets game" -- but maybe now it's time to graduate. I intend to keep writing (you can find me doing some blogging about real estate for CBS Interactive) but I'm not going to tell any Rookie stories for a little while.

I do, however, want to say thank you: Thank you Brad (and the Inman News crew).

And thank you readers: we know that you have a choice of airlines and thank you for flying "Rookie."

In return, I'd like to try to give you some words to live by out there in the real estate jungle. The words in my head are kind of funny and sad and smart all at once, which I know is confusing, but maybe you'll let me get away with it, just this time:



* The clients that you get most excited about are the ones you do the best job for.
* You know when you're doing the right thing; it's not an SAT test.
* Not every time is a good time to buy or sell a house. There are some really awful times to buy and sell houses, and if you call 'em that when you see 'em, your clients are more likely to be loyal when you call the good times.
* Two heads are more enthusiastic than one.
* You can convert nonbelievers into ordinary customers, and ordinary customers into referrers, but you can't make nonbelievers into referrers. Find them the perfect house, turn water into wine -- on their next transaction they're still for-sale-by-owners.
* If my mother had called "stand up straight" the "Law of Attraction," she would have made a lot of money.
* Don't forget Fran Leibowitz's motto: "You're only as good as your last haircut."
* New technology is incomprehensible, but you have to try.
* To quote Matthew Haines, the founder of PropertyShark.com, "data is not brokerage." Knowledge adds value. Expertise adds value. And so, for that matter, does joy.
* The faster you send a thank-you note, the easier it is to write it. I'm not one of those sorority girls who pre-writes her thank-you notes before she goes out for the evening, but I wish I were.
* From Gil, my sponsoring broker: "People don't change. Easy customers stay easy and tough customers stay tough." Corollary: Really mean and crazy people are mean and crazy to everyone, not just you.
* No one needs to see 100 properties to decide what to buy. Let the alarm bells go off after the first 10.
* From Michael Yang of Yahoo: "The consumer feels like the Internet is just a big hallway where Realtors are beating them with sticks and the first customer to fall gets dragged in the door." In other words, just because it's the Web doesn't mean you can forget your manners.
* Revenge is never as satisfying as you think it will be, but it's not bad.
* From Dan, my other sponsoring broker: "I hear what you're saying you would like the situation to be ? but what are the facts of the situation?"
* A good salesperson sells all the way up to the close. A great salesperson sells through and after the close.
* Remember, there's always another property.

Alison Rogers is a licensed salesperson and author of "Diary of a Real Estate Rookie."

Editor's note: This is the last installment of "Diary of a Real Estate Rookie." Thank you, Alison Rogers, for sharing your stories, and for inspiring and delighting Inman News readers. We wish you well! ***

The Diary of a Real Estate Rookie should be required reading for all brokers whether they do business in New York or other areas. Ali shows the true face of being a real estate broker and gives the straight dope of not only how to survive but succeed in the business.

As far as I am concerned all real estate brokers should aspire to be Ali Rogers. She not only knows her stuff but she is professional, focused, and respectful. She also has a strong sense of humility and honesty.

As she closes this chapter in her life, another one opens where she is now blogging for CBS Money watch in her column Ask The Agent.


As people tire of certain real estate talking heads, particularly ones who invest in Red Hook, I predict that Ali will be popping up in more of the mainstream media, particularly networks that are in dire need of credibility, yes CNBC that was a dig at you, and need someone who is willing to lay it all out about the real estate market. Ali Rogers is that person. I am very happy for all of her success. She has worked very hard to get to this point in her career and she deserves every bit of it.

And those of you are looking to buy or sell, don't be shy. Feel free to drop her a line.

Kindling

Nice house.


Want to see what is inside?





Lovely antiques aren't they. Well they are yours if you want them.

RYE, NEW YORK ONE DAY ESTATE SALE MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR HOME ON

CONTENTS TO BE SOLD IN ONE DAY SATURDAY, APRIL 11TH 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM

From what I have been this house is already on the market and this is pure speculation it appears someone lost their job.

I was talking to a family member about this and they informed me that the consignment shop that is holding this sales is closing one of their stores in Bronxville. The family member made the following observation at some point someone is going to burn their antiques for firewood. My thoughts were that as funny as that may sound, I think that is what is going to happen.

And the question that is asked as the first match is lit

"Why did we this stuff in the first place?"

And the answer.

"Well, at least it will keep us warm."


EDIT: APRIL 11, 2009 5 PM Looks like I was onto something.

Lives Streamlined for a New Era

Doubt

When in doubt, don't.

Benjamin Franklin

Back in the 1990's the comic book industry went through a transformation of sorts. Artists like Jim Lee and Marc Silvestri led a from Marvel with other artists to create their own comic book company called Image. Their initial success led to a massive exodus to the independent comic book industry as tons of established artists and writers decided to throw their hand in the creator own industry.

Then everything imploded. There are a variety of reasons why the comic book industry crashed near the end of the 1990's but it all comes to down to a saturation of product. What fueled the comic book boom were speculators who were jumping in and buying up multiple issues of comics and hoarding them for a later date when they could cash in. In other words they were applying value investing to comic books. The buy and hold strategy works better for investing, not comic books.

One of the factors that makes a comic book valuable is that it is rare. There are none like it or very few in existence. Despite the fact these new comics had marquee names, they were not even worth the paper they were printed on because of the copious amounts of inventory on the market.

And if everyone knows this, there is no incentive to buy or sell because the ROI is just not there. Even worse, those young bucks who decided to go out on their own were now left unemployed by their own hand because their companies had to shut down.

All of this brought about a shower of doubt that comic book fans were unable to shake off for quite awhile

I bring up this obscure fact of comic book collecting because the current economic situation reminds me of that period. I feel what we are experiencing is doubt and even with all the initiatives that are being put to get things rolling, I do not see the real estate market let alone the economy getting back on its feet for quite awhile.

For example:

Scope widens in Chinese drywall case

The problem of defective Chinese drywall is no longer confined to coastal Florida.

Drywall produced by Knauf Tianjin Plasterboard Co. Ltd. -- one of the problematic manufacturers identified so far -- made it to the inland town of Sebring, about 90 miles east of Sarasota in Highlands County, the Herald-Tribune has confirmed.

Meanwhile, a national consumer advocacy group is claiming that the scope is much broader. The Washington, D.C.-based America's Watchdog, which is partnering with high-powered attorneys across the country, says that its own investigation has found defective Chinese drywall in Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North and South Carolina, Virginia and Texas.

"We think this could literally turn out to be the worst case of sick houses in U.S. history," said Thomas Martin, the organization's president.

The Herald-Tribune reported on Feb. 1 that shipping records show at least 550 million pounds of Chinese drywall has been offloaded at U.S. ports since 2006 -- enough to build 60,000 average-size homes.

Gases being emitted from the Chinese-made material have been tied to corrosion and blackening of pipes in homes. Some Southwest Florida residents say the gases also have been harmful to their health, a charge the builders and manufacturers dispute. Several lawsuits seeking class-action status have been filed, including one in Sarasota County and another in federal court.

Ryan Willis moved to Sebring with his wife in 2006. They bought their first home -- a custom design that Willis himself helped craft -- built by local builder Meliti Construction. The couple helped paint the walls and lay floor tile.

"It's kind of depressing to think about all the work we put into this place," Willis said. "Now it will all have to go."

In 2007, the Willises' air-conditioner began to fail. It would ultimately do so four times. The couple's silver plates began to blacken, as did metal light fixtures. Three satellite TV receivers, along with their TV, stopped working. Other appliances and fixtures had problems.

"No one could explain what was going on. It was just so strange. I mean here this is a brand new house," Willis said. "It wasn't until a couple weeks ago that we first heard about Chinese drywall."

Willis has pictures taken during the home's construction. When he reviewed them, they showed drywall clearly bearing the name Knauf Tianjin. He immediately called the state health department.

Michael Foreman, head of Sarasota consulting firm Foreman & Associates, recently inspected the Willis home at no charge. Foreman suspects that dozens of homes in the area were built using the material.

During the real estate boom, building materials became very expensive due to the demand from pretty much every where in the world particularly China. In order to keep their operating costs low and to ensure profitability, many developers cut corners where they could. At the detriment of their customers.

Value for a home only occurs if someone to live there and it doesn't look like anyone wants to live in those homes. As for flipping these types of homes, you still have the same problem, if you want to make a profit you have to flip to someone.

With stories of everyone walking from their homes including banks, it would not surprise me that municipalities mandate that all owners of these homes need to clean them up before even thinking of selling them.

That is why a professional flipper would never touch these homes with a ten foot pole, because the homes have basically become brownsfields and it would be a considerable expense to decontaminate them.

It is not just the house that contains this type of drywall that has problems, the neighborhood that has even one of these on their block basically has a functional obsolescence. The gases emitted from these toxic homes is going to spread everywhere and no one knows what type of impact long term will exposure will have on the immediate population.

The only way this situation can be corrected is undertaking a massive cleanup effort which won't happen because of the cost.

This is just drywall we are talking about. There's probably all sorts of other s**t that went during the boom times that we don't want to know about but we are probably going to find out the hard way when we see building collapses occur within new developments sub standard building materials.

That is why I do not see any type of significant recovery in the near future for the real estate market because we are dealing with these types of variables. Not to say there isn't any opportunity out there. However I would strongly advise everyone to exercise adhere to a strict due diligence policy to the point of paranoia. But for people to say that there will be a recovery by the end of this year is crackhead talk.

One of the very large boulders that is acting as a drag on the economy are these toxic assets no one wants. It is gotten to the point that the government is planning on offering more ways for the people to spend money on them.

U.S. May Enlist Small Investors in Bank Bailout

During World War I, Americans were exhorted to buy Liberty Bonds to help their soldiers on the front.

Now, it seems, they will be asked to come to the aid of their banks — with the added inducement of possibly making some money for themselves.

As part of its sweeping plan to purge banks of troublesome assets, the Obama administration is encouraging several large investment companies to create the financial-crisis equivalent of war bonds: bailout funds.

The idea is that these investments, akin to mutual funds that buy stocks and bonds, would give ordinary Americans a chance to profit from the bailouts that are being financed by their tax dollars. But there is another, deeply political motivation as well: to quiet accusations that all of these giant bailouts will benefit only Wall Street plutocrats.


The embrace of smaller investors underscores the concern in Washington and on Wall Street that Americans’ anger could imperil further efforts to stimulate the economy with vast amounts of government spending. Many Americans say they believe the bailout programs — and the potentially rich profits they could yield — will benefit only a golden few, including some of the institutions that helped push the economy to the brink.

“This is an opportunity to forge an alliance between Main Street, Wall Street and K Street,” said Steven A. Baffico, an executive at BlackRock, referring to the Washington address of many lobbying firms. BlackRock, a giant money management firm, is playing a central role in the government’s efforts and is considering creating a bailout fund. “It’s giving the guy on Main Street an equal seat at the table next to the big guys,” he said.

I love how they are trying to spin this as an emotional decision. It has nothing to do with returns but just the fact that the people will be part of a process which is a really bad way to invest. Investing is about profit, it is not about being at the same table as another high roller.

As far I am concerned I would not touch this with a ten foot pole. As Jonathan Miller has pointed out regarding marked to market and his blog that there is good reason to be wary.

One of the key reasons investors aren’t buying troubled mortgage backed securities (toxic assets) is because there hasn’t been a way to establish prices - there has been little activity. In fact it is a lot like appraising home values today in a market with very limited or no sales activity.

As an appraiser, I was thinking of making an argument to a lender that “because there is no data I’ll appraise the property based on the last time it sold or as of a year ago when there were comps - it’ll be up to me.” Yeah, right.

Last October, just after the credit markets seized, I wrote about the concept of Mark-to-market in my [Mark To Market] To Buy A Fat Pig where I made the case that there may be no value at a certain moment in time. Immediately following 9/11 when there were no sales and some brokers are saying the market fell 25%. How can this be measured if there were no sales?

Nobody knows what these things are worth. And the people who are setting up the prices are the ones who got us in this mess in the first place. Do the words Fox guarding the hen house ring a bell?

If I were a savvy investor, which I am not but I am trying, I would not throw my money into this fund. Not only because I do not know the true value of what I am investing in but also the firms that involved are not doing this out of the goodness of their own heart. They are going to do everything they can to game the system in their favor. However I would not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

If selected — likely to happen by mid-May — money managers like BlackRock could begin a fund within weeks.

As well as BlackRock and Pimco, Legg Mason, another big mutual fund company, and BNY Mellon Asset Management, a big asset manager, have said they are interested in starting retail investment funds to participate in the government’s plan.

For the investment managers, the benefits are potentially large. These big firms can charge healthy fees to investors for taking part. They will also have the marketing prestige of being the firms the government turns to at a time of crisis to help sort out the country’s financial mess.

This is why I would consider investing in the companies themselves who are involved in creating and managing the fund because of this fact. But not the fund itself. Investors are well aware of these factors that is why they have such great doubts and are unwilling to throw their money into the pot for a fund of this nature. Which of course is not going to speed up this recovery anytime soon.

Through the school of hard knocks, the average of American is now far more educated with this financial crisis and the options that are presented just don't seem attractive to even attempt. It is like a game of high stakes poker gone terribly wrong. No one is going to bother to pull themselves up to the table because everyone knows each others hand.

Don't tell me it is going to be alright. It is not. Not for awhile. In the end it will all sort itself out but we are light years away from the end.

BIG SURPRISE: HOUSING SLUMP IN MANHATTAN!

NYT is really ahead of the game.
Housing Slump Hits Manhattan

So why now? The following IM discussion explains it.

Me(8:42:19 AM): old news
Family Member (8:43:06 AM): yeah
Family Member (8:43:13 AM): they put it off until they couldn't ignore it
Me(8:43:19 AM): yeah

And people wonder why newspapers are dying.

Things to do in New Bern

The first in a classic movie series to be presented throughout the year at the historic Athens Theatre The MGM Classic, “Easter Parade” Arrives Just in Time
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Sponsored by New Bern Civic Theatre

Grab your Easter Bonnet and follow the parade to the Athens Theatre Saturday April 11 to see the classic film “Easter Parade”. It arrives just in time for family gatherings. Starring Fred Astaire, Judy Garland and Ann Miller this Oscar-winning MGM musical has it all.
The music and lyrics of Irving Berlin excel in this diverting film. Songs such as "Steppin' Out With My Baby," "We're a Couple of Swells," and the incredible Fred Astaire dance number "Drum Crazy" frame a story of Don Hewes’ (Fred Astaire) rise to stardom with Hannah Brown (Judy Garland), while his ex-partner Nadine Hale (Ann Miller) makes it big on Broadway. The “We’re a Couple of Swells” number in which Fred and Judy are dressed like hobos, complete with blacked-out teeth, became one of the numbers most identified with Judy Garland, despite the fact that it was so contrary to type. “My Goodness, Alice! They tried to make that beautiful girl look ugly!”
There will be one screening of Easter Parade Saturday April 11, 2009 at 8p.m. Tickets

are $5 and will be available at the door. Price includes popcorn and soda .

Don’t miss your chance to see this great classic musical on the big screen.

The Athens Theatre, the home of New Bern Civic Theatre, is located at 414 Pollock St., New Bern.
For more information call 252-633-0567 or go to www.NewBernCivicTheatre.org

The hardest working man in real estate

That's Jonathan Miller! The James Brown of appraisal.


Besides his real estate blog, Jonathan Miller has taken upon himself to do a real estate podcast called the Housing Helix.

Jonathan covers a variety of different topics including appraisal ethics, toxic mortgages (He makes some very salient observations about the pricing of these mortgages) and a surprising development he experienced while speaking at a meeting of real estate professionals outside New York City.

It is vital that people read his blog and listen to his podcast in order to be more aware of the real estate market. Jonathan Miller is able to go micro to macro when it comes to real estate and he is not only well informed but his analysis of real estate issues is quite precise and will give you a lot to think about.

Although this is a given, I would like to remind you all that he is one of the most ethical and conscientious real estate appraisers around. If you don't believe me, let me point out he is nowhere near Andrew Cuomo's radar. Why? Because the Great Jonathan Millers is a straight shooter.